Saturday, May 11, 2013

USDINR - Technical Update

  1. What does a trader want? Not that difficult a question, I presume, for his chart patterns to work. Wont it be a perfect world if the chart patterns worked out really well every time, I doubt!
  2. If the patterns did work every time, there would be no fun in the markets, so this uncertainty is what breeds creativity in the mind of a trader, which he clearly takes too far at times, :)
  3. But yesterdays strong rally in USDINR, brought me back to the two head and shoulder patterns we are tracking in this pair.
  4. The bigger one of course if plays out, will prove to be a consolidation pattern to a the entire rally from the lows of 44 on USDINR.
  5. The entire right shoulder of this bigger HnS is itself turning out to be a smaller hns. 
  6. A BO from these two NLs (red and green), could well be the trigger for a much bigger rally. The targets for these two head and shoulder patterns itself come in the range of 57 and 59.
  7. Now if this pattern was a pause for the rally which started from 44 levels, we are looking at much higher levels than the targets for head and shoulder patterns developing.
  8. But all said and done, we need to break out of the resistance zone, which contains many important fibonacci relationships as well as the two NLs. The zone ranges for 55.14 to 55.37 odd levels.
  9. For traders working with intraday fractal, may already be long, and should trail there stops, those looking for long term trades and using weekly and daily fractals, should wait for this zone to be overcome, before committing serious capital.

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