Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Soybean - Elliott Wave Update

  1. Soybean futures are at a crucial juncture.
  2. We saw a stupendous rally last year, and prices touched a high around 5000.
  3. We are back to the time (sowing season) when there is a supply crunch in the markets and the demand is high.
  4. Technically speaking, we have a sharp 5 wave rally last year wave [3], preceded by a 5 wave move wave [1], and also followed by a possible 5 wave move in wave [5].
  5. Of this latest 5 wave move, we have waves (1)-(2)-(3) done, wave (4) is in progress, and hopefully wave (5) should follow.
  6. Ideally prices should go above the top of wave [3], atleast close to it.
  7. So once this correction in wave (4) is done, which I feel is quite close to finishing, we should see prices rising.
  8. Whether we take out the previous high, or fall short of it, I cant tell now, but we should surely get a tradable up move in coming months.

3 comments:

  1. Excellent analysis as usual. A false break of a major trendline points to a 4th wave indeed.

    One interesting thing - the pattern of blue (3) top to around blue (4) looks very similar to the pattern of green (3) top to blue (2). Might be insignificant but caught my eyes. :)

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  2. I should have mentioned - the blue (3) & (4) of the first pattern are contained in the big green (3).

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