Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Nifty, USDINR - Elliott Wave Update

An update to my last post on Nifty and USDINR.
  1. I posted a ST bearish but MT bullish count on Twitter, recently (access it here). Now I am posting an alternate, which is ST bullish but MT bearish.
  2. As per this count, we may be in wave B of an A-B-C ZZ. Which means we will have another leg up, once we finish this wave B correction.
  3. So far we have sustained above the GAP area, which has been a strong area of demand AKA support for the prices. The longer we sustain above the GAP, the stronger the possibility of a leg up, conversely a BD below the GAP would be bearish.
  4. Another support comes at 5800, should we break below the 5850 support (if at all should be tested intraday, no closing below the GAP).
  5. We have almost taken 161.8% time of A in wave B. We have another GAP area (5922.50 - 5897)  just above prices, a BO above this zone should be a good signal to enter into longs. We should at least test the upper boundary of this consolidation around 6000. The targets for this move may lie between 6360 - 6380.
The reason for this alternate count is the development in the USDINR.
  1. We might have ended a characteristic terminal pattern in wave [c] of II of this irregular flat pattern.
  2. If this pattern as marked by wave II on the above chart is complete then, it would suggest that we move further down the chart at the earnest.
  3. On a larger fractal, we have a possibility of a bigger flat pattern developing, of which the current down move from the highs of  55.90 odd levels (marked {B}) is the wave I of an impulsive down move in wave {C}, followed by a corrective wave in wave II.
  4. We must break below the lower boundary line of this terminal pattern.
  5. The targets for this down move would be what we can expect of any 3rd wave, at a minimum, it should be 161.8% of wave I. (I will update it on twitter @aniruddha4tew) should the prices choose to follow the count shown on the chart.
  6. Right now it would suffice to say that, a BD below the lower boundary of the terminal will change this market into a sell on rise market.
  7. The "saucer" pattern mentioned earlier (access if here) fails below the last pivot low of 54.645. Though the pattern may fail, I would urge the readers to look at it with a different perspective, it is a great example of combining two studies to give us actionable scenarios. For instance, as the EW count was inconclusive, we got a hint of possible up move using CTA (Classical Technical Analysis), whereas since the count is becoming clearer we are well informed, in advance, about possible failure of this classical pattern.
  8. As I have repeatedly said my objective is not to be on the wrong side of the markets, markets will eventually take you with them in the right direction, if you persevere!

5 comments:

  1. In Nifty chart, internal Wave 1,2,3...of (C)...and (a),(b)...all have same degree..!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. [a]-[b]-[c] comes under II. (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) comes under [c]. - but that's according to me. If u r using diff rules, plz share.

      Delete
  2. i think there is triangular 2nd wave has completed--same has been mail to you please observe ...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well both Prechter and Neely suggest that triangle are less likely to form as 2nd waves, if it seems like it, them may be better counted as B or X waves.
      Neely also adds that there is a remote possibility of a triangle appearing in 2nd wave positions of terminal waves.

      Delete

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