Saturday, December 29, 2012

Dollar Inder - Elliott Wave Update

  1. I could count the fall from the point marked "Imp Top" as an impulsive move, with wave (5) extending. Now the reason I am saying that the wave (5) extended is because of the subsequent market action, which almost completely retraced the wave (5), marked as wave (a) a 3 wave move.
  2. But that may not be the end of the correction, as the move down that followed was also a 3 wave move, marked (b). Now two 3 wave moves back to back suggest one of the 2 possibilities, either we are forming a flat or a triangle. In any case we should see higher prices in DI from current levels.
  3. Now if we are forming a flat, we will see a 5 wave move in wave (c), that should take us back into the range of previous wave (4) as well as in the range of wave (a) top. 
  4. Now the last time I posted on DI we caught the top of wave (a) on the exact day of the reversal, refer the chart here. We get lucky some times. This time I feel we should head up in wave (c). But whether it is a 3 wave move or a 5 wave move, only time will tell.
  5. My personal preference is towards a 5 wave move, because my larger count (refer here) suggests we have further downside in DI. So a corrective pattern following an impulse should mean another impulsive pattern to follow, in our case to the down side.
  6. I have a bad habit of making minor changes to my EW counts, and sometimes change them altogether, but always in response to market actions. So bear with me, if your goal too is to catch important turning points in the markets. I try!

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