Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Nifty - Elliott Wave Analysis


Monthly chart suggests, we are in wave C of {B} of (C). We may have some more upside left to complete this wave C. Once this is done we may expect wave {C} down.
The weekly chart shows the internals of wave {B} in detail. We have an extended wave [3] of C of {B}. The price may find resistance at the parallel lines drawn on the chart.
We can see the details of the extending wave [3] in this daily chart. Waves are developing beautifully. We need to make a new high above wave (3) to complete wave (5) and then a 3 wave consolidation to complete wave [4] and ten last dash up to get the wave [5] over with. That should complete wave C of {B}, and then we can anticipate a 5 wave decline in wave {C}.

Note: This is a big picture forecast of Nifty. This should be used for analysis purpose, and not to trade. The idea is to integrate your trading system with long term EW counts to help you take decisive action at critical junctures. Labels with "?" behind them suggest the count is not complete yet. (Futures charts are used.)

16 comments:

  1. In daily chart...
    internal Wave 2 and wave 2 of wave c, both have same degree... this type of dogmatic analysis is not allow in Elliott wave..Can u explain?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your comment.
      I could not spot a pair of 2nd waves with same degree on any of the charts (I think you are referring to waves (2) and [2], wave (2) is one degree lower than wave [2]).
      If you believe waves [2] and (2) are of same degree, then I would like to know your reasoning.
      Regards
      Aniruddha

      Delete
  2. Yes,waves [2] and internal(1),(2),(3),(4)...these all are of same degree...!!! So label should of same degree...
    ...Are u following Robert Prechter way then no question to you?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well sir my intention is to be on the right side of the markets rather than getting the count right.
      I am aware of Robert prechter glen newly and some other ingeneous ellioticians and technicians. so I can't claim to be with either of them. But I would agree that these labels are closer to prechter's style.
      Regards
      Aniruddha

      Delete
  3. My intention not to wrong you...
    If we don't following basic rules of EW...then what is the meaning of such analysis...If we not following the rules, we can not be on the right side of the markets.Right labels always gives right prediction..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear sir,
      Thanks for sharing your views. To each his own" is the mantra I live by. I wish you all the best and also you are welcome to share your views with the readers of this blog.
      Regards
      Aniruddha

      Delete
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    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Aniruddha

    Any reasons for marking (3) of C as (3) and not [3]?
    On a closer look u can trace 5 waves in [3]
    Then we may be in [4] or [5] of C then in (4) OR (5) of [3]

    No offences, just asking your reasoning for my learning

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your comment.
      As you can see I am labelling this move from 4530 levels as an A-B-C. Of which wave A was almost a straight line. The rule of alternation suggests that wave C should subdivide and the internals should be clearly visible. And that is what is happening. Wave (3) was very dynamic. Waves (2) and [2] were sharp and deep, wave (4) is sideways and shallow.
      I am trying to get a count which satisfies max no of guidelines that's all.
      Regards
      Aniruddha

      Delete
  6. As per Federal bank technical research report one should go short in this counter. Federal bank is looking quite weak at current level and is expected to fall further. Positional traders can go short in Federal bank from current level for good gains.

    ReplyDelete
  7. You have change the labels in your recent update and you labeled as said earlier by me.

    My earlier comments...."waves [2] and internal(1),(2),(3),(4)...these all are of same degree...!!! So label should of same degree..."
    "Right labels always gives right prediction.."

    That why i commented about such type of dogmatic analysis not allow in Elliott wave.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Anonymous,
      Thanks for your reminder again!
      I wish I could refrain myself from doing dogmatic analysis, guess I am not up to the mark, with EWP. But I can say one thing for sure, I will change the labels if my market view changes and try to keep them in a way that helps me minimize risk.
      But you could be so kind if you could share your analysis with me, I am not against learning, and may find some valuable clues from your work.
      Waiting for your reply.
      Regards
      Aniruddha

      Delete
  8. As per Federal bank technical research report one should go short in this counter. Federal bank is looking quite weak at current level and is expected to fall further. Positional traders can go short in Federal bank from current level for good gains.

    ReplyDelete
  9. As per Federal bank technical research report one should go short in this counter. Federal bank is looking quite weak at current level and is expected to fall further. Positional traders can go short in Federal bank from current level for good gains.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Dear Sir,
    Where could i learn the elliot wave analysis? is it really beneficial for short term trader?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is just another way of analyzing the markets. Like any other method if you truly internalize its principles you could find it very useful.
      You can learn about EWP by reading some good books by Robert Prechter, Glen Neely, Ramki Ramkrishnan, Robert Miner and many more.
      Since EWP believes markets are fractal in nature, you can use it on any time frame.
      Regards
      Aniruddha

      Delete

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