Thursday, October 11, 2012

Nifty - Elliott Wave Update

Nifty Daily
Nifty got resisted in our resistance zone, now time for confirmation. Nifty should break 5535 odd levels within 10 days from today, to confirm an end to this medium term up move. We completed a 3 wave down move from late 2010 top, and now it seems we may have completed a complex double three. Once we break 5535 every 3 wave rally should be sold into, hopefully for a quite some time to come.

4 comments:

  1. if we have completed a 3 wave down move then what will be the yours target of nifty and my second doubt,if nifty doesn't break 5535 in 10 working days can we see up move again to 5815-5920? please guide

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    Replies
    1. I feel we may have completed a complex double three in wave {B}, and should be looking for wave {C} down. That's my best guess. Nifty got resisted in the zone mentioned by us, but to confirm a turning point we need some specific price action within prescribed time window. Nifty will ultimately take its course, our analysis will help us manage the risks. Nifty completed a big rally recently, so we can expect increased volatility in near future, hence the confirmation levels to avoid getting whipsawed.

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  2. Hi aniruddha,
    thanks for the update....so as per ur analysid if we break 5535 by 20thoct, then we can see a huge fall towards 4700 in the days to come...

    another query...
    if we label this upmove from 4700 odd as (C) of the larger B, then isnt it that we just completed 3rd up and we may be in the 4th down (negated below 5350, the top of wave 1 of C) and one more wave up, the 5th of (C) may be pending? is this valid too?

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    Replies
    1. Ans 1: Below 5535 I feel the market would favor bears. We may be better off selling on rises instead of buying on dips. As of now I am not sure of any specific levels for the down side target.
      Ans 2: For this rise from 4700 odd levels and 4770 to be specific to be a wave C of {B}, the first rise from 4770 (4th June 2012) till 5348 (10th July 2012) need to be a 5 wave move, which I am afraid it may not be. I can better count it as a 3 wave move. Nifty may go on to make a new high, but the count I suspect would still be corrective instead of impulsive. Eventually markets would make it clear enough what pattern they are forming, we are always better off trading in the opposite direction of 3 wave corrective moves on a little shorter time frame.

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